This Week is Full with Potentially Market-Moving Data

First on tap tomorrow (Tuesday) is the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April - this gets at the touchy-feely stuff like how we feel about our financial situation and the overall economy. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed consumers are apt to spend.  If the trend is downward, it is an indication that consumers lack confidence and will hold off on large purchases.  The latter situation is better for the bond market and mortgage rates because a projected slowdown in spending reduces inflation concerns.  A decline from March is expected.

In addition to FOMC meeting results are 2 other important reports.  First on the menu is 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and per the Treinor Report "arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis".   Considered the best indicator of economic growth or contraction, this report is expected to cause a major movement in the financial markets and therefore could domino-effect into the mortgage markets.  KEEP YOUR EYES OPEN FOR THIS ONE FOLKS.  Fuel-recession concerns abound.  Anything that smells of inflation concerns could push mortgage rates higher Wednesday.

Second item on that menu is the 1st  Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) a comprehensive measure of labor costs and growth rate. It is also a closely watched wage inflation signal. A large increase may cause the bond market to tank and mortgage rates to rise over inflation concerns.  A smaller than expected increase is better news for bonds and mortgage rates.  Per Bloomberg, consensus in the ECI - Q-Q change is 0.8% increase.

The FOMC meeting begins tomorrow and adjourns Wednesday afternoon so expect some movement this week with important information coming out throughout the week with greatest potential for volatility Wednesday or Friday.  Weaker than expected economic data could mean bond market rally.